The Case for a Musyoka Candidacy
Raila’s place in Kenyan politics cannot be contested even by the most malicious of characters. Whether driven by self-interest as some might argue or a patriotic push to see a better Kenya, he has fought with sweat, blood, and tears. He has helped build successful politicians throughout the country and even helped Kenya’s best president to date, Mwai Kibaki, ascend to the throne. Unfortunately for him and his admirers who include me and of course fortunately for those who hate and fear him like the plague, he has made several unsuccessful bids for the top job. 2007 remains a blemish in Kenyan history because a huge number of Kenyans, including Raila’s critics, believe he won the presidency. This is why some say that Raila is the best president Kenya never had. In 2017, Raila stands to assume another enviable responsibility as a kingmaker. Unlike the tangled marriage he had with Kibaki even before the doomed 2007 poll, 2017 is likely to see Raila create a president out of a man who will surely keep him close and relevant, with minimal fighting. The man being referred to in this case is Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka.
(File Photo). Mr. Musyoka at a past event.
I am not naïve to think that Raila’s supporters will smoothly shift to Musyoka. In fact, Raila himself might find it tough to see Musyoka run against the incumbent president, Uhuru Kenyatta. Well, the reality is that Raila risks being viewed as the greedy hyena who cannot get satisfied with his share, in this case, the several times he has tried unsuccessfully to be president. All the times he has tried, the people around him, at least most of them, have supported him. The question that stands to diminish his support outside Luo-Nyanza is “Can’t he let others try, having tried many times himself, and lost? Are those around him not men/women enough?” I foresee a situation where Weta, the victim of domestic violence, courtesy of a one Madam Waceke wa Mumbi, and Musyoka will face skeptical audiences in their home turfs with these questions. “Are you not man enough to ask Raila to support you this time round? Last time you brought him here, we voted for him and he lost! The same happened at such and such a time!” These are tough issues for these other fellows, and especially for someone from Western, a region that has been with Raila nearly all the times he has been a presidential candidate.
A western Kenya candidate, more specifically, a Luyha, can fare well. But it is difficult to see a winner in such a candidate. The prospects get dimmer when the candidate in question is Weta who appears snoozy in97% of his public appearances. On the other hand, a candidate from Eastern Kenya, in this case, Musyoka, will sweep the Kamba vote, pick some disgruntled Meru votes, cut deep into Nairobi votes, take nearly 70% of the Coast, and with the help of Raila and Weta, sweep Western and Nyanza. I am also almost 100% sure that Musyoka will get 90% of the Kisii vote, something neither Uhuru nor Raila can.
This is where Raila’s opportunity to once again define the country’s direction comes in. Kamba voters who will not be happy to see Musyoka support Raila again will be happy to move to Uhuru if Raila is the CORD candidate. Luyha voters who have always stuck with Raila have begun wondering whether his unsuccessful bids have not been too many when he is surrounded by men who can also be given a chance to take on Uhuru Kenyatta. Some of these voters will easily swing to Uhuru if Raila is again on the ballot as the top man.
Musyoka’s general appeal is unquestionable. Back in 2007, the buzz about Musyoka’s marketability and the ease with which he would have whooped Kibaki was palpable. But Raila played his cards wildly and embarrassed Musyoka at a rally in Mombasa. My take from this is that such juvenile moves to show might in the short term and lose the election in the long term are not just misguided, but misplaced given the need for a totally different approach to leadership. Kenya has gone to the dogs and new leadership is needed. I have no illusion that Musyoka will do any magic but he has more integrity compared to what Kenyans are witnessing at the moment. It will certainly get better with Raila as part of the leadership in any recognizable capacity.
In order for Musyoka to merit the support of not just Raila, but his supporters too, he has to show that he deserves the back-up. He must be willing to move around the country at his cost, create pockets of support and amass enough foot soldiers who can start the crucial canvassing that is necessary to generate victorious euphoria. He has to get media operatives who can push his agenda even more. In other words, he has to copy some of Raila’s tactics. Above all, he has to be able to not just respect Raila, which I am sure he does, but be able to demonstrate it to Raila’s supporters. This is because Raila is not Raila without his supports. Whichever method he has used to keep them behind him, it is undeniable that he has maintained the most loyal legion of supporters for the longest time in Kenyan history. That, in itself, sets him apart from the rest of the flukes we have witnessed in Kenya’s political scene.
The country is bleeding. There are numerous allegations of military misconduct that might be responsible for the deaths of about 100 soldiers in Somalia. There is massive corruption that has totally crippled the economy and the education system is limping towards Jerusalem. The country is crying for new leadership, and this, fellow patriots, is why Raila might need to make this decision. His ability to lead might be beyond reproach. But then his chances of winning have reduced drastically. But he can still help Kenya get a new president by once again playing “Kingmaker.” He did it with Kibaki in 2002 and Kibaki helped initiate the process that transformed Kenya from a mediocre banana republic Moi had mangled our nation into to a vibrant semi-modern state that the current leadership is busy crushing and mutilating. Can Raila rise to the occasion once again? We shall get the answer in the sands of time.
Abel Onchari Oyieyo
oncharioyieyo87@gmail.com