Researchers from the Centre for African Progress (CAP), the company that correctly predicted President Uhuru Kenyatta’s 2017 presidential win over Raila, did a simple follow up survey following President Uhuru’s recent pro-BBI pitch to his Mt. Kenya home base. Most of those who responded to the CAP survey stated that they still dislike BBI. Most of those whose minds changed upon hearing President Uhuru’s message developed a negative view of BBI. Some of them also developed some dislike for President Uhuru Kenyatta for working so hard to market something they have made up their minds about.
The questions posed by the Centre for African Progress (CAP) were as follows:
- Did you listen to the President’s message? A. YES. B. NO
- Did the President’s message change your views on BBI? A. YES. B. NO.
- If you chose “YES” in question 2 above, state how your views on BBI have changed. A. I like it. B. I hate it.
- Do you like President Uhuru Kenyatta? A. YES. B. NO.
- Do you support BBI? A. YES. B. NO.
The Results
From a sample of 1,200 respondents, 648 people or 54% said that they were able to listen to the President’s message.
Fig: Pie Chart showing percentage of Central Kenya residents who heard the President’s message
A number of those who did not access the message from the president cited economic hardships and the need to work hard and make ends meet as the reason for lack of time for what a majority of them termed as “a not so useful message since it cannot put a meal on the table or help them raise school fees for their kids.” Therefore, they were not keen on remaining glued to their radios so as to listen to the President’s message.
The Impact of President Uhuru’s Message on those who listened
Of the 54% or 648 who heard the president’s message, 87.5% or 567 of them stated that the message did not alter their views as far BBI is concerned.
Fig: Pie Chart showing the effect of the President’s message on the BBI perception of those who heard him
The fact that most of those who listened to the President did not change their views on BBI shows the poisoned nature of BBI, meaning that even the most intense of campaigns will not move the people of Mt. Kenya towards BBI. They cited timing as the major issue that will see them dismiss the bill until immediate issues such as hunger, lack of school fees, and total control of Covid-19 are taken care of.
Direction of Change of View on BBI
Of the 81 respondents who revealed that they had changed their views on BBI upon listening to the President’s message, 64 of them or 79 % said that they hated BBI while 17 or 21% said that they liked BBI.
Fig: Pie Chart showing the direction of shift of views regarding BBI among those who heard the President’s message
The negative shift in BBI views following the President’s message captures the counterproductive nature of kneejerk reactions that are often spontaneous moves not backed by strategy. The President made the sudden outreach to Mt. Kenya following the alarmist message shared by the Senate Majority Whip, Hon. Irungu Kang’ata. The possibility that there was not much thought put into the presidential outreach is extremely high hence the lack of ground preparation.
Most of the people who stated that they have developed a negative view of BBI following the presidential message argued that there is an element of “deafness” among government officials who are pushing the BBI agenda even as Kenyans suffer because of a collapsed economy. The repeated sentiment was that BBI can wait but hunger cannot.
The Sentiments of the People of Mt. Kenya regarding the President
Of the 1,200 people who responded to the CAP questions in the survey, 900 of them or 75% said that they like the president. Only 25% or 300 said they disliked the president.
Fig: The President’s Popularity in Mt. Kenya
The Paradox:
The president is an extremely popular figure in Mt. Kenya. This finding is in line with the traditional political discipline of the Mt. Kenya people where their support for their national leaders is often solid. This is why despite the evident widespread dislike for BBI, Uhuru remains a popular figure.
There is undeniable evidence that BBI has lowered the popularity of the president among his people. The explanation is rather simple: he is trying to push them to accept something they do not want.
Unlike other parts of the country where tribal kingpins coerce voters to elect certain politicians, Mt. Kenya has a liberal and independent political culture where leaders are treated as servants. This is why the people of Mt. Kenya expect President Uhuru to listen to them instead of trying to shove a document down their throats.
CAP predicts that the more the president tries to preach the gospel of BBI to the people of Mt. Kenya the more they will hate him.
The General Popularity of BBI in Mt. Kenya
Out of the 1,200 respondents, 1,125 of them or 93.75% stated that they do not want anything to do with BBI at this time. Only 75 of the respondents welcomed the BBI Constitutional amendment Bill.
Fig: Pie Chart showing the general popularity of BBI in Mt. Kenya. 93.75% reject BBI.
BBI remains highly unpopular in Mt. Kenya. Additional data captured by CAP researchers reveals that people in the 19-40 age bracket hate BBI more than those above 40 years. Women are also more opposed to the document than men. Additional research to explain these statistical phenomena is underway.
Note:
- The margin of error for the study is 17%
- Kenya in this study refers to the following counties: Nyeri, Murang’a, Kiambu, Laikipia, Meru, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Kirinyaga, and Nyandarua.
- The study was conducted through phone calls. The sample distribution through the counties was assigned based on the population in each county.
- It is important to note that resistance to BBI is almost uniform throughout the region.
Centre for African Progress (CAP)
info@centreforafricanprogress.com
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