On the 13th of March 2018, a beautiful Arabian woman by the name Zainab landed at JKIA. With a $ 9,000 handbag, a well-paid helper, and her local contact, they snaked through the city straight to a posh home-style office where she was left openmouthed by the amount of gold she saw-a clean 400 KGS of high quality 23 carat gold from the East African region. She pointed at one bar that was graciously picked and promptly tested to confirm her joy. She made the agreed partial payment on the spot and left for Dubai, Kshs. 96 Million poorer, as her consignment was being prepared for shipment. Well, the problem is that there was no gold. At least not the quantity she had seen. In a flash of a second, the bar she had pointed at had been pushed aside and a fresh bar of real gold was quickly pulled out of some pocket and slid into the table for testing. Everything else was brass. She had been flashed.
Raila Amolo Odinga, the enigma of Kenyan politics, is being flashed politically, in broad daylight. The president has failed to deliver on the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI), thus handing to Ruto quick victory as he has been the one talking of “reggae” stopping. “Reggae” is the code name for BBI. Raila has gotten nothing for his team from the handshake. And your guess is as good as mine-without any convincing explanation as to why the president has lost every war that would have brought Raila real benefits in the post-handshake era, he has to play the only card he has –lie to Raila that he will make him president.
However, there is one problem with this. Actually, there are two problems.
First, there is every indication that the president has totally lost his grip on Mt. Kenya, the only vote block he would have promised any politician in this highly tribalised political atmosphere. Initially, there was talk that he was still the man to go to as far as Mt. Kenya political direction is concerned, and the support shown to Ruto was dismissed as vapour that would disappear in the light of elections. Then came the litmus test-real by-elections. Jubilee candidates endorsed by the president have lost in almost all by-elections while the ones openly brandishing Ruto’s name and party have won convincing victories. At this point, strategic and clever “Kieleweke” MPs have started to reposition themselves so that they are not swept away by a tide they can already see. There is no doubt that they expected the president to have some ace up his sleeve but now they are sure he doesn’t. Only the non-politicians such as David Murathe are still bellowing out there because they do not foresee any danger and if can, they care less because they are not going to put their names out there and deal with a hostile electorate.
With the control of Mt. Kenya votes slipping away from the president, Jubilee is not a party that can enter into any viable deal with ODM. It is a shell of its former self, and the moment it merges with ODM and Raila heads the new outfit as the presidential candidate, nearly all Mt. Kenya contenders will exit through the backdoor because they know they will lose if they go into elections through that party.
Therefore, a cornered President Uhuru without any explanation to give an anxious Raila has decided to behave as if Jubilee is still alive, Mt. Kenya votes are with him, and he can hand this over to Raila. This is the “fool’s gold” that the Arabian woman named Zainab was shown. The single genuine gold bar pulled out of one of the scammers’ pocket to serve as the testing front represents the few Mt. Kenya profiteers seeking to reap big from the coalition while knowing that their own people will not vote for Raila whatsoever.
That is how Raila is being flashed!
The second problem is the illusion of the Deep State.
In 2002, the only president I have known who had a total grip on the nation watched as his presidential project by the name Uhuru Kenyatta get boiled and mashed into pulp by the Kibaki Tosha Wave. He did not dare interfere with the democratic tsunami. Five years down the line, a cornered Kibaki, equipped with the Deep State, found himself on the shallow end of the electoral pool. His men had to crudely steal votes in Tharaka Nithi whereby they reported more votes than the number of registered voters. In 2013 and 2017, monkey business may have been there but the near even split of the votes between the two major contenders diminished the chances for chaos. Even in 2017, Raila’s team never garnered enough votes to beat Jubilee. The vote was cancelled by the highest court purely on procedural misdemeanors.
Fast forward to 2020-2021 and a look at the by-elections will tell you the reluctance of whatever is called the Deep State to interfere with the electoral process. Is there any madman out there who thinks that President Uhuru was comfortable watching Jubilee lose the Juja parliamentary by-election to the UDA-affiliate called PEP? I bet not!
Well, the Deep State is made up of men and women with brains, and while some may be possessing low quality brains, a good number of them are brilliant enough not to try and mess with the will of the people. One gift Raila Odinga gave Kenyans that they will forever thank him for is the voting, counting, and reporting of ballots from the voting point. This democratic reality makes it impossible to introduce ballot boxes along the way.
The Deep State has its limits. Any view to the contrary is total delusion. BBI was thrashed by five judges of the High Court. Jubilee, the Party of government lost the Juja Parliamentary by-election. ODM, with its leader, Raila, in government as the president’s brother, lost the Msambweni Parliamentary by-election. Jubilee lost two civic seats deep in Mt. Kenya (Murang’a’s Gatiru Ward and Nyandarua’s Rurii Ward). All these happened under the glare of the Deep State!!!
It is on this testimonial background that I boldly dismiss as hot air the Deep State argument.
So what does Raila gain from his intended merger or coalescing with Jubilee? The answer is that he gains absolutely nothing! In fact, he ends up as the loser. He will be kept busy chasing after a rotten mango rolling down a hill while his opponent goes after real votes, mostly in Raila’s strongholds.
At the moment, Ruto’s blocks from 2017 remain largely intact. Rift Valley is locked. He will most likely benefit from the confusion in Western Province Counties and chances of him getting more than he got while deputizing Uhuru are improving with each passing day. As Msambweni indicated, he will be very competitive in Coastal Counties, threatening to share the region’s vote equally with the ODM leader. In Lower Eastern, Kalonzo Musyoka has already stated that he’d be the most STUPID man if he supports Raila this time round, meaning that Raila might not benefit from the Ukambani vote.
So, with all these happenings, why is the president selling fake gold to the former Prime Minister? Is he trying to keep him busy while the real person he wants to hand over power to come 2022 gets a clean chance of extending the margin of victory? Assuming the President is genuine in his intent of getting support for Raila, why has he not taken him to Mt. Kenya to introduce him to the voters? Remember Raila has taken Uhuru to Luo-Nyanza several times. Why has Ruto enjoyed unfettered access to the president’s own backyard, the same place Uhuru’s brother, Raila Odinga, has not stepped?
The answers are with you.
One thing we can all agree is that the Right Honourable Raila Amolo Odinga is being “flashed.” He has been shown enormous quantities of “gold” but it is not gold.
By Kenneth Omondi