In a telling display, H.E President Uhuru Kenyatta is missing RailaOdinga’s Murang’a leader’s meeting after it had been earlier revealed that the Head of State would be in attendance. Questions have been raised before over Uhuru’s refusal to introduce Raila to Mt. Kenya given that the former Prime Minister has over the years struggled to win the region’s support without any success. The general consensus has been that Uhuru needs to take Raila to Central Kenya in the same manner Raila has on numerous occasions taken the president to Nyanza. The Uhuru Nyanza tours have been so warm to a point where citizens offered to protect the president instead of his formal guards, demonstrating the level of acceptance the once hated Uhuru has gotten in the opposition leader’s backyard.
Also missing in the meeting are key Mt. Kenya leaders who have been running around stating how they will not have an issue taking Raila to Mt. Kenya. They include Nyeri Town Member of Parliament Hon. Wambugu Ngunjiri, Kipipiri Member of Parliament who is also the House Majority Leader Hon. Amos Kimunya, and Kieni legislator Hon. Kanini Kega. Almost 75% of the region’s members of parliament, senators, and MCAs as well as aspiring leaders for various elective positions are in Deputy President William Ruto’s UDA, and are therefore not expected to attend Raila’s function.
The visit comes after the President’s Jubilee Party suffered humiliating defeat in Kiambaa Constituency in the hands of the United Democratic Alliance, (UDA), which is a political outfit that has the backing of the Deputy President William Ruto. The former Prime Minister was accompanied by Machakos Governor Dr. Alfred Mutua and was received by outgoing Murang’a Governor Mwangi wa Iria.
The conventional political wisdom prevailing in the larger Mt. Kenya is that any aspiring leader who dares to be seen with the former Prime Minister sets himself or herself up for failure given the extent to which Central Kenya voters dislike Raila, a man they have been made to view as their enemy over the years. The last time Raila tried to venture into Mt. Kenya he was pelted with rotten oranges and rocks in Githurai forcing him to cut short the trip. Coincidentally, that visit also took place without any Mt. Kenya leader, including the likes of Maina Kamanda who at the time was at the forefront among those babbling how they were ready to market Raila in Central Kenya.
On the contrary, Mt. Kenya has been extremely receptive of Deputy President William Ruto’s message, giving him victory after victory in by-elections, including right in the President’s doorstep of Juja Constituency. The Ruto support is so strong to a point where leaders from Mt. Kenya who try to go against him get shouted down during public gatherings. The most recent public humiliation by members of the public was visited upon East African Legislator Hon. Mpuru Aburi who tried to castigate the “wheelbarrow” and the Deputy President, only to have his speech drowned be chants of “Ruto” and demands for him to “sit down.” He took the shame in stride stating that he was trying to “test the waters by sticking his foot in the pond.”
During the same meeting, a demurred Kabogo learned his lesson well from the Aburi humiliation and made a submission that was viewed as sympathetic to Ruto, insisting that Mt. Kenya needs to be united so that they negotiate with whoever seeks their backing for the top seat.
According to the latest opinion polls released by various firms, Raila has 5% support in Mt. Kenya compared to 1% for Musalia Mudavadi, 1.5% for former Vice President and Wiper Party Leader Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka, and 77% for Deputy President William Ruto. At the moment, no strong Mt. Kenya leader has emerged to claim leadership of the region, and the coronation of National Assembly Speaker Justin Muturi seems to have failed to get him any clout. The president has also lost the region’s ear, and residents who shared their views with the Centre for African Progress (CAP) attribute this disenchantment with his decision to turn against his “loyal” deputy. They also accuse him of turning on businesspeople from the region, harassing most of them for fake tax evasion allegations.
Some of the businesspeople who have been targeted for tax evasion include Humphrey Kariuki and Tabitha Karanja, both of them Kikuyus.
Raila’s foray into Mt. Kenya in the absence of the President has confirmed most pundit’s views that the president is uncomfortable accompanying a polarizing Raila at a time when his popularity in his own home is sagging.
The President is on a three day tour of the UK where he will co-chair the Global Education Summit with British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, a trip that would have been avoided altogether or pushed forward by a day to allow him attend the Murang’a meeting. There is also talk of the president seeking an opportunity to pitch for his Big 4 Agenda, something the British High Commission in Nairobi feels is unnecessary at this point given that the president’s term is just a year away from being over, and his major preoccupation at this point in time should be making sure that the country is able to hold free and fair elections given past experiences of tension and violence.
It remains to be seen whether today’s meeting between Raila and some Mt. Kenya leaders will bear any fruit in terms of the former prime minister being able to campaign freely in the region and collect enough votes to push him over the top in next year’s presidential election. But even with some success in Mt. Kenya, Raila has to contend with reduced support at the Coast, a potentially lost Ukambani vote, and reduced support from Western Kenya. It is likely that the votes he might be able to harvest from Mt. Kenya will not cover the ones he will lose, thus complicating his bid.
The Centre for African Progress (CAP) average for Raila is 33% compared to Ruto’s 43% and Musyoka’s 16%. Musalia Mudavadi has 4%.
By Paul Angalwa
For The Centre for African Progress (CAP).