The 5th President of the Republic of Kenya was unveiled on the 10th of August 2021 at State House Mombasa by the 4th President H.E Uhuru Kenyatta. The 5th will be Raila Amolo Odinga. At last, the glam limos, suit up elite guards, and “mkeka mzima” he has always craved are on the way.
A few weeks ago, the disintegration of the National Super Alliance (NASA), Raila’s 2017 vehicle, spelt doom for his presidential ambitions, and his Centre for African Progress (CAP) score went down to 42% behind William Ruto’s 46%. A militant Kalonzo Musyoka was poised to run away with his 12% in the first round and play the crucial role of King Maker in the runoff. But Alas! Uhuru has performed magic, and the brothers are back together, stronger, wiser, and smarter. Even healthier.
The team is now 6-strong with Uhuru as the patron and son of former Dictator Daniel arap Moi bringing in his bottomless pockets.
With the reunion, it is almost certain that William Ruto is the next official leader of the opposition.
Unless of course there is fallout in this hexagon, for now, that is likely to metamorphose into a more sided figure in the coming days.
The team…
President Uhuru, angered by the belligerence of his deputy, is the patron saint of the team. He has already made it clear that these opposition warlords should unite and give him one person to support for the presidency. It appears that he meant what he said, and he has evidently taken practical steps to unite the team. There is no doubt that he chaired the Mombasa State House meeting.
President Uhuru is a man on a mission. Like a wounded animal, he is not going to leave any stone unturned in his bid to show Ruto and his hangers on that he can punch back. He will definitely commission state machinery to smooth the path for Raila to climb gently and peacefully to State House.
This is an assurance he gave to the team in Mombasa, and we should all expect him to follow through with his promise. The effort to bring the warring opposition is to amass enough votes to avoid the need for blatant rigging. This is arguably the best path, and we should all be glad that President Uhuru has chosen it.
What he brings to the Table
The president comes with the “System” and pockets full of money. The system will turn a blind eye and a deaf to misdeeds by the president’s blue eyed boys but thoroughly harass similar misbehaviour by Ruto’s team. That will leave Ruto’s people complaining from dawn to dusk as Raila covers more ground, raises more money, gathers more votes, and gets closer to the finish line. The president is also an instrumental figure in the 20-30% vote score that Raila will garner from Central Kenya, which is roughly 800,000 votes, going by the 2017 IEBC figures that gives Central Province 2.9 million registered votes.
Kalonzo Musyoka….the Lower Eastern Watermelon
A few days ago, Mr. Watermelon was swearing how he cannot support Raila or run with him as his deputy, unless of course he got totally immersed in a drum full of “stupidity.” Well, Kalonzo will MOST likely deputize Raila as it was in 2017.
He has a solid bargaining chip-he has a wonderful grip on the Ukambani vote (620K for Machakos, Kitui’s 474K, and Makueni’s 423K) totaling to 1.5M. Unlike Musalia Mudavadi whose voters are Raila’s voters, Kalonzo’s votes are Kalonzo’s votes.
With him deputizing Raila, Ruto is effectively locked out of the 1.5M Ukambani vote, and if he gets anything, it will not be more than 10%, which by all measures is mighty generous.
Ruto will be left with the Upper Eastern votes that he will most likely scoop a cool 1.2M out of the 1.3M available from Isiolo, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, and Embu Counties.
Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetangula
These Mulembe brothers will lock Western. The lock actually got stronger with the calculated inclusion of Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya.
Assuming these fellows do not wander to Sugoi, 1.6M out of Western Province’s 1.9M votes will go to Raila.
Musalia will be a Deputy Prime Minister under BBI that Raila will revive after winning the presidency. The finance docket is also on the table.
Gideon Moi
The zero-vote man will add no vote value to the team, but he is part of the reason President Uhuru is cobbling and stitching the Raila-led team together. There seems to be some sort of pact the president may have had with the late dictator that involves making sure that Gideon Moi has access to the presidency, and Uhuru might be trying to position Gideon to take over from Raila.
In addition to giving Raila all the necessary air time on KTN and coverage on the Standard while giving Ruto a blackout, Gideon will chip in financially. In the new government, the younger Moi will be an influential cabinet secretary.
H.E President Raila Amolo Odinga—the 5th…
The man of the moment has put together what Observers have described as The Last Band that is on stage to deliver The Last Dance.
Mzee will sweep Nyanza (2.7M) perhaps losing about 100K from Kisii and Kuria to Ruto. He will also most likely reap roughly 1.5M from Nairobi’s 2.25M votes.
Even if he gets a mere 30% of the Rift Valley’s 4.69M votes (1.4 M), and 60% of the Coast Province’s 1.7M votes (roughly 1M),
At this point, even with 0 votes from North Eastern for Raila, 0 votes from Diaspora for Raila, and 0 votes from the Prisons for Raila, he stands at 10.4M, equal to 53% of the total vote, assuming 100% voter turnout. In 2017’s first presidential election, voter turnout stood at 77%.
In less than 12 months, y’all will be living under a Raila presidency. You can as well start referring to the old man as the 5th. He will like it with a dose of lakeside vanity.
The Back-Up Singers…
Betty Kyalo’s ex-boyfriend Hassan Joho and Kilifi’s Amason Kingi from the Coast are part of the Raila choir. Alfred Mutua and Charity Ngilu are there too. James Ongwae, Wifebeater Sospeter Ojaamong, and all the big names are there. In other words, the nation is there.
Mutahi Ngunyi,
Guest Writer
Centre for African Progress (CAP).