The two front-runners in the 2022 presidential contest are running two very different campaigns, and while the difference is healthy and expected, one campaign’s path is astonishing. Whereas Deputy President William Ruto has spent his time to put together a semblance of a manifesto that is yet to assume a concrete form, the other side, run by former Prime Minister and current bosom buddy of President Uhuru, Raila Odinga, is running on a purely an anti-Ruto platform.
Ruto’s incomplete economic and political proposals have been shared with the public in the form of a “Bottom-Up” economic approach and an all-inclusive political path with a national party that leaves no tribe out on its own. There is no doubt that these are shaky proposals that can be demolished in the face of solid alternatives. But surprisingly, they have stood the test of time because those seeking to portray them as weak and baseless have nothing to show in return.
It is often argued that the solution to a bad idea is a good idea.
The solution to a good idea is a better idea
And the solution to a better idea is the best idea.
Instead of Raila Odinga’s side coming up with better ideas to render Ruto’s ideas irrelevant, they have perfected the art of trying to tear down Ruto’s ideas without offering alternatives. And hungry and angry Kenyans have noticed.
There is not even a single senior politician in Raila’s camp who has some coherent ideas on how the former Prime Minister and leader of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), plans to undo the damage the economy has been dealt by the theft of the last ten years, five of which he has been in government as a close associate of the President, Uhuru Kenyatta. Raila himself never finishes his speeches without taking jabs at William Ruto but he never makes any clear case for his presidency, with discernible economic policies. His sidekicks, be it, Senator James Orengo, Junet Mohamed, or Gladys Wanga, spend their time criticizing Deputy President William Ruto who is basically out of government as he was practically pushed out to create room for Raila.
The same thing applies to ODM and Jubilee bloggers who spend their time manufacturing propaganda videos that attempt to portray Ruto in negative terms instead of portraying Raila in positive terms. This trend is repeated on Twitter and Facebook posts as well as articles on blogs and newspapers.
Out of a rough estimate of about 80 videos shared online by top ODM/Jubilee bloggers per day, 100% of them bear anti-Ruto content, and 0% mention the name Raila or attempt to explain what Raila will do for Kenyans.
Ruto spends his time marketing his “bottom-up” economic approach, his “United Democratic Alliance (UDA)” that he intends to build into a national party, and what he argues he achieved while serving as Uhuru’s Deputy President from 2013 through 2017.
The question one gets to ask in the light of this reality is whether or not these different approaches by the campaigns are working.
The term “working” has several dimensions. “Working” can refer to leading to the desired results for the campaign in weakening the other side while simultaneously strengthening one’s side. It can also mean enabling Kenyans to understand what one’s campaign is all about so that they can either ask questions for better understanding or make up their minds based on the strength of the ideas so shared.
First off, the Ruto approach seems to be working in terms of gaining support.
According to the Centre for African Progress (CAP) polls, Ruto is ahead so far with 46% of the vote followed by Raila at 38%. Kalonzo Musyoka is third with 16%. A poll by Radio Africa placed Ruto at 42% with Raila garnering a mere 14% in a poll that was dismissed by many as bogus.
The bottom line is that if the numbers from the polls are anything to go by, Ruto’s approach of selling his agenda seems to be gaining him support from Kenyans.
The other dimension of “working” is enabling Kenyans to have an idea about where a candidate stands on the issues. So far it is straightforward that Ruto makes it easy for Kenyans to understand what he intends to do and can ask questions for an in-depth understanding of the proposals he is making and the solutions he is offering to the problems the country is facing. On the other hand, Raila’s campaign makes it very hard for Kenyans to understand what Raila intends to do for Kenyans given that all he and his lieutenants talk about is Ruto.
It has been said that in politics no publicity is bad publicity, meaning that even negative publicity is useful in a way. The underlying concept in this statement is “name recognition,” whereby some voters tend to vote for people they have heard of even if the context in which they have heard about them is not pleasant. Name recognition counts for so much in elective politics.
When Raila’s bloggers churn out hundreds of videos and produce tons of messages on Facebook, blogs, WhatsApp, and Twitter, giving Ruto millions of mentions, it is Ruto who ends up as the beneficiary, getting hundreds of millions of shillings worth of free advertisement. An enlightened audience consuming these materials from the Raila campaign ends up judging Raila harshly by trying to tear down someone’s reality instead of building and offering a better alternative reality.
It is a campaign strategy that is not working for Raila, and unless he changes it quickly, he will wither under Ruto’s rare indefatigability and razor-sharp focus on the issues in the way of offering solutions, even if the solutions he might be offering are eventually bound to “not work.” In 2007 when Raila ran a uniquely focused and solid campaign, he was heavy on offering solutions and light on attacking his opponent at the time, President Mwai Kibaki. The results were outstanding for Raila, and many Kenyans and people around the world believe that he actually won the elections. It is a wonder he is not utilizing his own experience when he most needs it. Ruto is tough an opponent, as tough as they come. He is sharp, agile, astute, cunning, and thorough. And Raila knows this because, in 2007, Ruto was Raila’s best soldier, and brought in the largest vote share to Raila from Rift Valley province.
If Raila and his minions do not learn, the election will be over, won by Ruto, before Election Day.
James Kaluyu,
Wayne State University,
for Centre for African Progress (CAP).
All Rights Reserved. 2021.
Note: The author of this article was part of Raila Odinga’s 2007 presidential campaign from Kitui, Kenya.