In my village, serious bulls are taken for a drink in the late afternoon, around two or three, after they have helped plough the fields and then fed on dry maize husks. It is during this time that ground-shaking bull duels ensue, and the real bull outwrestles all the rest, kicking them out of the river, peeing proudly, snorting and grunting while mounting every female in sight, burrowing the ground with its horns, and bellowing loudly. But then there is the yet-to-be-initiated young bull, the bull calf, that is led down to the river by a young idle boy when the sun is in the middle of the sky, long before the real bulls have gotten discharged from the yokes. Largely unchallenged due to the absence of other bulls, the bull calf carries around the illusion of invincibility. Until Sunday when rest from working the fields sees the real bulls roll down to the river earlier than usual. That Sunday is fast approaching, and William Ruto, the bull calf, is about to meet the oldies.
For the longest time, Deputy President William Ruto has been running for president, alone, unchallenged. Like a colossus, he has stridden the width and breadth of this land with neither challenge nor question. Like the bull calf, he has convinced himself that he is invincible. His manner of speech, the hue of attitude, and nature of actions all point to a man who has assumed the air of invincibility. How unfortunate that a good number of his followers have lost sense and believed him!
The shock that awaits Ruto is of historical proportions. And if there is anyone who ought to know this, then it is Ruto himself. For he has worked with the man who is preparing the shock, the Right Honourable Raila Amolo Odinga, the man whose only one move saw Ruto get tossed out of government after the 2017 elections
How does the shock look like?
One indisputable king of alliances that this country has ever seen is Raila Odinga.
In a few weeks, he is going to bring together all the heavyweights, middleweights, and lightweights from nearly every part of this country. Ukambani Kingpin who is pejoratively referred to as “Watermelon” with his 1.4 Million Lower Eastern votes is the default Deputy to Raila Odinga. With Musyoka in the bag, nobody will raise a finger against Raila in Ukambani. If you need a pointer, refer to the recent Machakos by-election where the Wiper candidate, Senator Agnes Kavindu Muthama, won without campaigning even when we all know that that candidate is the wife to the Chairman of Ruto’s party, the United Democratic Alliance, (UDA).
When that happens, and it will be sooner than later, the accommodating men and women of Ukambani will only meet Ruto to receive his goodies. The votes, all the 1.4M of them, will be Raila’s!
Musalia Mudavadi will also end up with Raila, unfortunately, for just a promise that he will become the Senior Minister in the Raila-Musyoka government. This is of course a promise Raila will keep if he makes it. I have no doubt about that. Musalia will accept this deal for two reasons. First, he has no better deal from Ruto. Second, he does not control his backyard, and whether he is with Raila or not, Luhya votes will most likely end up with Raila. So it was in 2013 when he was on the ballot together with Raila. He lost Bungoma, Kakamega, and Busia to Raila and equaled him in his Vihiga backyard.
Any politician from Western worth his or her salt will be in the Raila/Musyoka/Musalia camp. Only scandal-ridden lightweights will be with Ruto, and we can all see them scampering for safety when the Raila armada will roar into town. It will be a sight to behold!
From the Coast, Joho will lead the troops back to Raila, and Kingi will have no choice but to stick with Raila. With intense pressure from Raila’s foot soldiers who are always more motivated and dedicated than any other group, most of the politicians who are now leaning towards Ruto will swing back to Raila, and on election day, Raila’s Coast numbers will be around 70%.
Back in Nairobi, with a ticket bearing no Kikuyu at the top, the Mt. Kenya zeal and zest of 2007, 2013, and 2017 will be nowhere. Raila’s troops from Kibra, Mathare, Kawangware, Umoja, and Kangemi will make sure that Ruto holds no rally whatsoever.
Langata Constituency is on its way back to ODM. Very early on Election Day.
Raila will garner about 65% of all votes cast in Nairobi County on Election Day with a suppressed turnout among voters sympathetic to Ruto. Even the next governor of Nairobi County will be a man or woman endorsed by Raila, most likely a Kikuyu deputized by someone from ODM (Kisii, Luhya or Luo).
Nyanza will be a routing. About 92% of the vote will go to Raila, and the scammers from Kisii currently working with Ruto will not secure for him even a small space to land on. Expect it to be chaotic! Disgraced scammers such as Magara, Zaheer, Gichana, etc cannot introduce you to the Abagusii people. They can only scam you of your few coins. The only decent guy from Kisii with Ruto is Kisii County Deputy Governor, Joash Maangi, who, unfortunately, would have made a wonderful preacher and not a politician. He will not make even a close second in Kisii County’s 2022 gubernatorial race that is largely expected to go to Prof. Ongeri deputized by current Kitutu Chache MP. Hon. Richard Onyonka.
And how about Ruto’s strongholds?
Mt. Kenya moneymen are apparently with Raila. A few days ago Citizen TV owner S.K.Macharia took Raila to Murang’a to make it clear that he is their man.
Raila will need only 10% from Central Kenya to win the presidency by more than 1.5 million votes. He might get 15%-20% of the Mt. Kenya vote. Without campaigns, he already has about 12%. This number can only go up. In Rift Valley, he will get more than his 2017 numbers.
When all is said and done, Ruto will win about 10 of the 14 Rift Valley counties and the 8 Mt. Kenya counties totaling up to 18.
Raila will win everything else….(29 counties), and about 57% of the popular vote.
Since the State seems ready to play fair this time, Raila will be sworn in, this round as Kenya’s 5th President.
I am hoping Ruto will also be sworn in as the People’s President with Senator Kipchumba Murkomen taking Miguna Miguna’s place as the one administering the oath of office. But wait…..Miguna Miguna is on Ruto’s side. He might reprise the role after all. Barrister Miguna Miguna swearing-in Dr. William Samoei Ruto as the People’s President!
By Andrew Mwangi
Guest Writer
Note: You can guest-write for CAP by sending your request to 0794741891