Nairobi City County is the ultimate prize of devolution. The governor of the City-County has the honour of being the landlord or landlady to the President, his deputy, parliamentarians, Senators, and numerous other significant state officials. The County has the highest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) that is larger than that of Lesotho and Swaziland combined, and when managed well, can generate up to Kshs. 1.5 Billion Kenya shillings revenue in a month. In other words, the Nairobi County Governor is economically stronger than the President of Rwanda.
But who will be its next Governor?
At the moment the county is run by an illegal entity called the Nairobi Metropolitan Services (NMS) that was quickly cobbled together by President Uhuru Kenyatta after he resolved to eject former Governor Mike Sonko from the county. There is also a “ceremonial” governor in the name of Anne Kananu who assumed office after Sonko’s exit. Kananu was Sonko’s disaster manager.
In the 2022 contest, the most visible face is that of former Starehe Member of Parliament Bishop Margaret Wanjiru who is likely to seek the seat on Deputy President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA). Others who have expressed interest though in a demurred manner include former Dagoretti South Member of Parliament Hon. Denis Waweru and Senator Johnson Sakaja. There are also rumours all over town that ODM’s Elizabeth Ongoro, Tom Kajwang, Tim Wanyonyi, and George Aladwa might be eyeing the seat. But the numbers can only work for Bishop Wanjiru if the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), a key stakeholder in Nairobi politics, fumbles in the nomination process. If the party makes the costly error of nominating someone from the Western block (Luo, Luhya, or Kisii) as its gubernatorial candidate in Nairobi, Bishop Margaret Wanjiru will win the seat by 11am on Election Day solely on the strength of the Mt. Kenya vote and the wild popularity of UDA as a party among Central Kenya people. Furthermore, having missed the first two elections for the City-County boss, Mt. Kenya people who are the foremost investors in Nairobi are hell-bent on having one of their own take over the County’s leadership. They don’t miss an opportunity to emphasize the reality that the five years of Evans Kidero and the Sonko regime as governor of Nairobi were total disasters that crushed their businesses and interfered with their investments.
This is where Hon. Denis Waweru comes in. Waweru lost his Dagoretti South parliamentary seat narrowly to comedian John Kiarie because he flip-flopped between going for governor and Member of Parliament. He has thus far played his cards well, staying close to Raila, supporting the ill-conceived, poorly executed, and eventually crushed Building Bridges Initiative (BBI), and he is a close ally of President Uhuru Kenyatta.
This is the man the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), can use to clinch the Nairobi County Gubernatorial seat. All that Waweru has to do is to get a mere 20% of the Mt. Kenya vote, something he can easily surpass. The rest of the votes will be from the Western block, and he will easily win the governorship. The same pattern does not apply for a candidate from the Western block (Luhya, Luo, and Kisii) because such a candidate can hardly get even 5% of the Mt. Kenya vote. It is also vital to clarify that running mates rarely click on the vote register given their invisibility, and therefore it is not possible that a Mt. Kenya running mate to a Western block gubernatorial candidate can produce the victorious matrix.
The Numbers
In order to understand the statistical postulations discussed above, it is important to look at the Nairobi County registered voters numbers.
As of 2017, the total number of registered voters was 2,250,853. A cool 1 million of these were Mt. Kenya voters. After the Enhanced Voter Registration by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), an additional 139, 560 voters were added to the voter role bringing the total to 2, 390, 413. A Luhya voter count of 340,000 and a Luo voter count of about 290,000 give us 630,000 which is 441,000 at 70% voter turnout. The UDA candidate gets 700,000 at the same 70% voter turnout. A fair split of the votes from the other groups such as Kisii and Kamba does not alter the figures in any significant manner, other than the likelihood of the Kalenjin vote of about 80,000 going entirely to the UDA candidate, thus bringing in an added advantage to the UDA candidate.
However, if the ODM candidate is Kikuyu, it becomes easier to scoop some of the Mt. Kenya votes from the Kikuyu UDA candidate, let us say 30%, and this will be enough to win the contest against the UDA candidate. Out of 1,000,000 Mt. Kenya votes, 700,000 votes come out of a 70% voter turnout. 30% of this is 210,000 and if this is added to the western block, the ODM candidate lands past the finishing line.
Does it matter who the Kikuyu ODM candidate is?
Certainly! A little known candidate will struggle to gain traction. This is where names such as Patrick Ngatia become politically untenable. Wanjiru is a widely known name and in order to counter her, a known quantity will do a much better job. Candidates who are overly corrupt to a point where it is widely known will also pose challenges thus giving the UDA candidate an easy advantage.
Value to ODM/Raila
Over the last few years, Raila has made overtures to Mt. Kenya, positioning himself as a friend of Central Kenya who can be trusted to safeguard the interests of Kikuyu businesspeople. He has enjoyed a warm relationship with President Uhuru Kenyatta and has tasted the generosity of Mt. Kenya businessmen through the Mount Kenya Foundation. In the picking of the Nairobi County gubernatorial candidate for the 2022 race, he has a real chance to practically seduce the Mt. Kenya people with an aim of getting their votes, and the best way to do this is to pick a Kikuyu candidate for the ODM gubernatorial ticket for Nairobi County. The message will be simple, loud, and clear: As I seek to occupy State House, I would like Kikuyus specifically and the Mt. Kenya people, in general, to be partners in governance by having a governor from Mt. Kenya. This is a message that will resonate very well with Kikuyus and bring real political value in terms of votes from a constituency the former Prime Minister has struggled with.
A Luhya candidate adds zero value to Raila’s presidential bid. A Luo is even worse.
By all measures, ODM seems to perform better with Denis Waweru as their candidate. Any other candidate will be a wasted opportunity to gain control of Nairobi County.
There is absolutely no doubt that any of the candidates from either Nyanza or Western will lose to Bishop Margaret Wanjiru as the UDA candidate. But she stands absolutely no chance against Hon. Denis Waweru. All that Hon. Waweru ought to do is to be proactive and assertive so as to make it easy for Raila to give him the ticket as a strong and deserving candidate as opposed to a weakling receiving a favour.
By James Alutalala
For The Centre for African Progress (CAP).
Copyright 2021.