The pride, pomp, and prejudice that BBI pushers have exhibited in town over the last several months pointed to inevitability. Money was never an issue. It was a state project, duly financed by taxpayers. Other state tools would be easily brought to bear to make sure it had the smoothest of sails. With the presidency still imperial in practice albeit other institutions were unchained in theory, not even the courts would derail it. Then boom! Thunder struck. A 5 bench judge dealt a blow to the famed Uhuru-Raila project in a landmark ruling that bore numerous holes on the BBI pot. It was left leaking from every possible orifice. The pushers have since sought reprieve from the Court of Appeal but prospects of resurrection are slim. The case, the cause, and the course are all lost.
Who gains? Who loses? What next?
President Uhuru….
On his part, the president comes out limping, sweaty, and hyperventilating. Bamboozled, addled, and if in touch with his conscience, thoroughly embarrassed. As the head of state with all the instruments of power, he had the resources to not only craft a watertight project, but also make sure it sailed through without complications. The original idea was excellent but development was both selfish and mediocre. A genuine unity project would have shoved politics aside and killed all other divisive factors and assembled all the politicians but the handshake and BBI were intentionally structured and promoted in an exclusionary manner, with Uhuru’s deputy being mercilessly bundled out.
In the process, Uhuru’s men starting with the Attorney General, Solicitor General, and advisors slept on the job expecting the president to use his powers to push illegalities down the throats of Kenyans. This is the reason why both the process and the product are “legal phantoms,” to use the words of one of the lawyers who expressed frustration at the President’s bullish effort to impose on Kenyans, an illegal document. The president also assembled incompetent minds to promote the document. The minions heading the project at various high levels handled it as a private members’ club where the resources were closely monitored and tightly controlled. The media outreach was extremely poor and promotional efforts such as popularity surveys were missing. The High Court judges who boldly thrashed the document were fully aware of the mediocre handling and dismissed it with ease.
Uhuru goes down in history as the president who had the resources to get the job done but failed. His failure is more than some people can stretch their imagination. To the members of the public, he is a clueless president who cannot assemble competent minds that can initiate and see through a solid project. To Raila, he is a weak partner who, despite state machinery, fails to deliver on a simple yet vital deal. To Ruto, Uhuru is a weakling who pushed him out of government in order to push through a selfish agenda but failed. The president has egg on his face. Whichever way anyone looks at it, it is egg on the president’s face. Even his own family that might have wanted him back in politics and leadership in some form is disappointed.
Raila Odinga…
Raila Odinga, the ODM boss, loses in a major way at the wrong time. For a political magician who uses near-election events to build up steam that most of the time gives him an upper hand just before the elections, a failed BBI push denies him that uniquely Raila feature. In 2005, Raila led the Orange team to victory against the Banana team that was headed by former President, Mwai Kibaki. The steam from this referendum was so strong that it gave Raila what is believed to be his only clear presidential win that was stolen leading to post-election bloodshed. In 2013, his battle cry was the International Criminal Court (ICC) case against Uhuru and Ruto but it was not as effective as the 2005 referendum. In 2017, he did not have a major booster and his presidential campaign was lacklustre.
BBI was promising to be another momentum booster but its dismantling at the High Court has already taken away some of its strength. Another loss in the Court of Appeal will be a serious rebuke for Raila that will make it very hard for him to convince Kenyans that he was not trying to use the backdoor to mutilate the 2010 Constitution that a majority of Kenyans hold dear. With the election of 2022 just a few months away, it will be tough to clear the loss off the memory of Kenyans, and Raila’s presence in Uhuru’s failed leadership will complicate matters even more.
Assuming he ends up on the ballot against William Ruto, he will do so as the weaker party having lost the BBI battle even with state support through president Uhuru.
Deputy President William Ruto….
He will emerge the biggest winner if BBI suffers another blow at the Court of Appeal. He is already reaped big from the hit BBI got at the High Court since he came out early calling for dialogue, inclusion, and avoidance of unnecessary contention given that the publicized aim of the project is national unity. Many Kenyans, about 68% according to the Centre for African Progress (CAP), believe that the High Court made the right decision in thrashing BBI, and that Ruto and church leaders were right in calling for an inclusive process.
Those who hold the view that Ruto was right in calling for an all-inclusive process believe that he emerges from this entire spectacle a winner. He has even summoned the power of the heavens when rebuking Raila and Uhuru in their declaration that “no one can stop reggae,” telling them that “there is a God in Heaven who can stop reggae.” This has made a good percentage of Kenyans, 31%, view him as a man of deep faith whose prayers can and do work.
Ruto can be expected to ride the victory wave, hammering it at every turn and in every opportune moment, until 2022. At the moment, he and his Hustler movement bear the Biblical “David” tag after “slaying Goliath, the giant,” in this case, the machinery of the state led by Raila and Uhuru.
Ruto has been extremely lucky in this entire BBI process to a point where one might think he had Uhuru had planned it all the way to make Ruto strong in the run up to the 2022 election. He was jettisoned from a ship that has ended up sinking into the deep sea, taking with it the captain (Uhuru) and his co-driver (Raila).”
At this time, even ardent Raila supporters have acknowledged Ruto’s strength and while some have jumped ship and started to root for Ruto, those who have remained with Raila know that their job is not easy. It is worse for Uhuru who has lost support in his own backyard…….with nearly everybody joining Ruto.
The ordinary citizen, the taxpayer…..
As an ordinary Kenyan, you win some and lose some. On the light side, your 2010 Constitution is intact. At least for now. The intended executive expansion would have come with additional salaries and allowances. That is off your back too. The 70 seats that BBI was about to create that you NEVER asked for are also off for now. That is a huge saving during this difficult period with a failed economy, runaway corruption, and Covid-19 ravaging the people.
Ordinary citizens also get inspired with BBI’s collapse by realizing that there are some arms of their government that are independent and can protect their rights and safeguard the republic from the excesses of the executive. Confidence in the judiciary is at an all-time high following the dismissal of BBI by the High Court.
On the dark side, a lot of money has been stolen by cartels pretending to be amending the constitution for you. That money is supposed to be recovered. Also, the expanded executive is a good step in getting more parts of the country into the country’s top leadership thus reducing tension and violence during elections. Therefore, BBI’s collapse delays this small step in spreading leadership across the state, a delay that would have been avoided if only the right procedure had been followed in initiating and pushing BBI forward.
The Judiciary…
The country’s judiciary wins in a major way by harvesting a solid confidence vote from members of the public who now believe that they can bank on the courts to protect their rights. The High Court ruling is especially important for new judges who are now fully encouraged and can fight for the rule of law whenever it is under attack by either the executive or the legislature.
The former Chief Justice, Mr. Maraga, is one of the happiest people given that the judges exhibiting boldness in their rulings are part of the team he put together and nurtured during his bold reign at the judiciary which was marked by landmark rulings such as nullification of the 2017 presidential vote, asking the president to dissolve parliament, and asking parliament to impeach president Uhuru for lawlessness.
In a country where the legislature and the executive have a history of stealing from ordinary citizens in the form of salaries, allowances, and other perks to lawmakers and members of presidential commissions and taskforces, a strong judiciary is far much preferable.
Onchari Oyieyo,
Quality Control Manager- Centre for African Progress (CAP).