Nairobi County Women Representative’s Position proving tough for the Incumbent, latest poll shows
Like the Nairobi County gubernatorial seat, the Women Representative’s seat for the City County has attracted several candidates. The similarities do not stop there. In the same manner that Evans Kidero is poised to lose, if recent polls are anything to go by, unless a miracle happens, Rachel Shebesh is equally in trouchange.Wangui Ng’ang’a, the sassy young woman with billboards in different parts of the city is already at the helm. Shebesh is a distant second while another newcomer, Millicent Omanga, is third. Omanga is a sweetheart of many top opinion shapers around town, something that might work in her favour in the coming days. In this poll, she had 14% of the vote.
Wangui Ng’ang’a is currently ahead in the polls.
Below is the full breakdown of how each of the top candidates fared in the CAP poll:
- W.B Ng’ang’a…………………………39%
- R. Shebesh……………………………..25%
- M. Omanga…………………………….14%
- Undecided……………………………….19%
- Others………………………………………3%
Source: CAP Polls, May 2016.
Omanga garnered 14% of the vote.
The poll was conducted between 19th and 22nd of May 2016. The sample size was 2,100 registered voters. Only those registered to vote within Nairobi count were targeted for responses. There are some respondents who gave other names such as Bishop Margaret Wanjiru who has expressed interest in the gubernatorial seat. Others gave names of other unknown candidates. The combined score of these candidates was 3%. 19% of those who participated said it was too early to make their minds.
Shebesh seems to be getting punished alongside Kidero, the incumbent governor, who is viewed by a majority of Nairobians as inept, rude, violent, and corrupt. The Kshs. 200 million bribery scandal seems to have permanently damaged his image. Slapping Shebesh early in his leadership did not help matters.
Some factors that were noted during the poll include the tribe of the candidate, the looks (unfortunately), name recognition, and alliances. The support that Shebesh has seems to be pegged on the possibility that she will work with Sonko who is hugely popular with Nairobians. Sonko’s supporters seem eager to support her, thinking that she will again campaign and work with Sonko as it was in the last election. Ng’ang’a, the top candidate so far, is perceived as aggressive, good-looking, and ready to work for the women of Nairobi. These are the same attributes attached to Millicent Omanga, awarning sign to Ng’ang’a that she might not be at the top forever. Ng’ang’a’s other advantage is name recognition, something the other newcomers will have to deal with in the coming days.
Tribe is a big negative factor in the country’s leadership dynamics, and it indeed played a major role in the poll. The presence of a sizeable number of Kikuyus in the county will definitely be a plus for Ng’ang’a while the western block will most likely back Omanga. Shebesh and Ng’ang’a might end up splitting the non-western vote, thus handing victory to Omanga. But the 2017 election is far away, and a day in politics can allow for so much change.
The margin of error is 2.8%