Adventist Reformers predicted the end of the world in the late 1990s. Joseph Goebbels foresaw a world run by Adolf Hitler, and TIFA gave Nairobians the colourless Peter Kenneth as the Nairobi Governor in waiting for the 2017 election. And Tom Wolf shared surveys showing Raila Odinga and Kalonzo Musyoka besting Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto. One common denominator in all these is that they never came to pass! They were falsehoods.
Wolf is at it again. Only that this time round he has outdone himself in the southward direction of mediocrity. Understanding the impact of tribal allegiance is a key factor in conducting realistic opinion polls in Kenya, and this explains why foreign pollsters who are used to homogenous populations get it wrong all the time when they carry out surveys in most African countries. Even local pollsters without the prerequisite knowledge in research methods come up with seven horned creatures any time they give it a go. An example is the utterly nonsensical Radio Africa survey that gave Kalonzo Musyoka 1% and William Ruto 42%. The former Prime Minister, Raila Odinga, had below 15%.
In the latest travesty by TIFA’s Tom Wolf, Ruto leads with 38%, quite realistic, followed by Raila at 23%, realistic too, but allocates Musalia and Musyoka 2% and 1% respectively. The same poll gives 19% as the number of undecided voters.
Even a freshman with a few lectures in Research Methods with an understanding of the “spurious” factor called tribe and the high octane political climate that Kenya is will dismiss these numbers as statistical hogwash. It is late in the day, and the election is about nine months away, literally less than a year. Musyoka has demonstrated his stranglehold on his Lower Eastern counties of Machakos, Makueni, and Kitui by the landslide win of a Wiper candidate in the recent Machakos Senate by-election where Governor Alfred Mutua’s Maendeleo ChapChap candidate withdrew in shame due to failure to gain traction. Musalia has dug in and his Western Kenya constituency is revolting, meaning Raila’s numbers in Western will definitely not be the same. All these four guys have declared their interest in the presidency, and there are reliable indicators that a Musalia-Musyoka ticket is possible.
Where then do these large numbers of undecided voters come from? The answer is that those bogus numbers DO NOT EXIST. Kenyans make up their minds way too early, and the undecided block is usually between 6-9%.
History has demonstrated that the Akamba people will solidly vote for their man even if they know that he is going to lose. It happened in 2007 when a faltering Musyoka scooped almost 90% of the Ukambani vote. So far there is no signal that anything has changed, and the default point is that they are Musyoka voters until he advises them otherwise.
At 75% voter turnout for the national 21million voters, Musyoka will not get less than 10% of the total votes cast. The three Ukambani counties of Kitui, Makeuni, and Machakos had a total of 1.5 million votes in 2017 and that number has risen to around 1.75 million with the recent voter registration exercise. Coastal counties also have huge numbers of ethnic Kambas who have proven a reliable constituency for Wiper. Akamba people are also the third-largest voter block in Nairobi City County, dominating Eastlands Constituencies such as Embakasi South, Embakasi East, and Embakasi Central.
The story is not so different with Musalia. Raila has always eaten into the Musalia Western vote but sentiments have shifted and the House of Mulembe has stubbornly insisted that their votes must also go to one of their own. At about 2.1 million votes, even if Raila gets a third of the Luhya vote, Musalia will not score less than 10% at the national level. He can easily get 16% of the national vote considering the fact that he is the only candidate who can get votes in Rift Valley without too much sweating because of the ethnic Luhyas in Trans Nzoia and Eldoret. Luhyas are also the second in voter numbers in Nairobi county after the GEMA block that is now slightly above 1 million. We must also not forget that Musalia is viewed by almost all Kenyans as the least antagonistic candidate in this election, and his national appeal is unmistakable. The point here is that it is not a miracle if Musalia gathers votes from all over the country.
While lack of polling knowledge is an evidently present handicap in the TIFA poll, there is also despicable mischief that is geared towards harassing and scaring Musyoka and Musalia out of the presidential contest by suppressing their votes. This is not good public service.
Pollsters have a duty to give the real picture as far as the support for the candidates is concerned so that voters are able to make truly informed choices. They also have a duty to not act as vehicles of mental manipulation of candidates. If Musyoka and Musalia are psychologically maimed and flogged out of this presidential contest, Kenyans will have been denied the necessary element of variety by being restricted to two options. This is totally unacceptable.
This cunningness is perpetrated by bribed researchers who are used to bend the minds of a majority of Kenyans who lack the capacity to interrogate and possibly dismiss some of these numbers.
And this must stop!
Centre for African Progress (CAP) Editorial Desk
Copyright, 2021.