There is great uncertainty that has gripped the country with the punditocracy swinging left, right, and centre as they churn predictions that they toss the next minute. The time mirrors 2002 when, under a heavy cloud of democratic anger, a small cartel of “system” babies looked up to then strongman Daniel arap Moi to pull a first one on top presidential contender, former President Mwai Kibaki. “Will the Professor of politics, with his state machinery, be defeated?” many Kenyans wondered. Having jilted his Vice President, Professor George Kinuthia Saitoti, as well as other seasoned politicians who had traveled with him for a huge portion of his political journey, Moi was stuck with his unpopular tar baby, Uhuru Kenyatta, and a few poor calculators such as Hon. Musalia Mudavadi, a man who accepted to serve as Vice President for only two months. For Gen X and Z tots who weren’t of age at that time, Moi was unable to rig, his tar baby was washed clean at the polls, and the best president this country has ever had, Mwai Kibaki, won the election.
Fast forward to 2021, Uhuru Kenyatta is the president. Having presided over the worst economic period since independence, he has dumped his Deputy, a man who helped him win the highest office. Twice. He has courted the opposition leader, Raila Odinga, one of the most popular politicians this country has ever produced, and in that courtship, Raila has lost his mantle of freedom, his claim to reforms stewardship, his tag of honour as the champion of the poor, and his sword as the anti-corruption czar. For the first time, Raila finds himself in a corner where he cannot criticize a thieving government that steals Covid-19 cash, allows cronies to sell donated masks, and awards tenders to family members of senior government officials. But saying that all is lost for the former prime minister is to oversimplify the situation, for it is never over until the fat lady walks across the stage. She is still undressing since she plans to walk naked…across the 2022 stage!
The State of Affairs
The “System” is in disarray. Insiders are in agreement that they MUST not interfere with the 2022 elections for such silliness will burn the country. Some of them remember the 2007 election tampering that dragged the country back to the pre-independence chaos. There are a few cranks and crazies who harbour the evil intent but they are always overpowered by the good. This is why by-elections have been occurring in a fairly free manner with the so-called “system candidates” receiving a whipping. It started with Ugenya constituency where the candidate, Hon. David Ochieng, who was branded as “Ruto’s man” as a way of weakening him, ended up winning, then Embakasi South where a foul-mouthed Sumra dismissed Hon. Mawathe as Ruto’s man…..and that man won. Then came Gatiru Ward in Murang’a where a self-confessed youthful “Hustler” beat a Jubilee veteran, Mswambweni constituency, then Juja, and finally Kiambaa.
Jubilee, President Uhuru’s party, got screwed, right in the president’s backyard. Bedroom, if you may.
In all these contests, a very new outfit hastily cobbled together by William Ruto is the one serving cold revenge to President Uhuru Kenyatta.
All opinion surveys carried out by various interested groups point to a Ruto lead in 2022.
A “system” survey carried out in 2020 September by the president’s handlers gave the Deputy President William Ruto 47% while his closest challenger, former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, got 42%. The rest of the votes went to fringe candidates.
A Centre for African Progress (CAP) survey of 5,600 respondents gave the Deputy President, William Ruto, 45% and Raila Odinga 38%. A third candidate, in this case, Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka, scored 11%. The rest of the vote went to fringe candidates.
The “Ifs” in the Game
The current political landscape is extremely fluid. Like a hamlet in the tropics, the weather changes quite quickly and unexpectedly.
So far, Musalia Mudavadi and Kalonzo Musyoka have chosen to form their own alliance, the so-called Third Force. I am not wasting space and time including other voters in the team who control no vote. For example with all the money, Senator Gideon Moi has no vote to bring to the One Kenya Alliance. Similarly, Senator Moses Wetangula is better of as Musalia’s body man since he too brings no votes to the table other than his own.
If the two former Vice Presidents stick together, they will form the third bid. In this bid, the solid vote base that they can rely on is the Kamba vote that is easily controlled by Hon. Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka. Musalia Mudavadi’s votes will be eaten away by Raila Odinga and William Ruto. This reality has historical precedence. In 2013, Musalia Mudavadi defied a call to work with Raila and went to the ballot where he managed a paltry 400,000 votes. Nearly 75% of Western Province’s votes went to Raila. Verdict: Musalia had no grip on Western Kenya votes in 2013, and there is no evidence that the situation has changed.
Deputy President William Ruto has made remarkable forays into the region, and while he might not get much, a 10-15% grab of the vote is not a political impossibility.
The Kabuchai and Matungu parliamentary by-elections where the Deputy President’s candidates managed slightly above 30% of the votes cast point to a scenario where Ruto will likely perform better than the 15% I am giving him.
Guided by the numbers, Hon. Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka should rightfully carry the OKA baton, and he will easily score his 11%. His automatic deputy should be Musalia Mudavadi.
In this case, we will have three notable contenders heading into the 2022 ballot.
In the final analysis, Raila Odinga will get his Nyanza vote with an exception of Kisii-Nyanza that will be shared between him and Ruto. This will give him about 78% of the vote in that province. He will get about 39% of the Nairobi vote, 5% of the Eastern vote (in the absence of Musyoka in the Raila ticket and the strong Ruto support among the Meru, Raila will be left naked in Eastern), 20% of the Rift Valley vote, 40% of the Coastal counties’ vote, 50% of North Eastern, and possibly 20% of Central Kenya. He will also manage 55% of Western Kenya.
As of election time in 2017, the provincial electoral map looked thus statistically:
Rift Valley (14 Counties): 4, 649, 768 votes
Central Province (5 Counties): 2, 910, 465 votes
Eastern Province (7 Counties): 2, 818,516 votes
Nyanza Province (6 Counties): 2, 688,104 Votes
Nairobi Province (1 County): 2, 250, 853 votes
Western Province (4 Counties): 1, 927, 043 votes
Coast Province (6 Counties): 1, 713, 151 votes
North Eastern: (4 Counties): 501, 894 votes
Diaspora: 4, 393 votes
Prisons: 5, 528 votes
Total: 19, 611, 423
Using the above numbers, Raila’s performance looks as follows:
78% of 2,688, 104 from Nyanza is 2, 096, 721 votes
20% of 4, 649, 768 from Rift Valley is 929, 953 votes
39% of 2, 250, 853 from Nairobi is 877, 842 votes
20% of 2, 910, 465 from Central is 582, 093 votes.
40% of 1, 713, 151 from Coast is 685, 260 votes
55% of 1, 927, 043 from Western is 1, 059, 873 votes
5% of 2, 818, 516 from Eastern is 140, 925 votes
50% of 501, 894 from North-Eastern is 250, 947 votes
Add him 100% of Diaspora-4, 393, and Prisons- 5, 528
Total: 6,628, 535.
This is 33.8% of the vote, assuming the statistical impossibility of 100% voter turnout.
In this same scenario, Kalonzo Musyoka and Musalia Mudavadi will garner about 10% of the Coast vote, 10% of the Nairobi vote, 13% of the Rift Valley Vote, 5% of the Central Kenya vote, 20% of the Western vote, 54% of the Eastern vote, about 12% of the North Eastern vote, and 4% of the Nyanza vote.
4% of 2,688, 104 from Nyanza is 107,524 votes
13% of 4, 649, 768 from Rift Valley is 604,469 votes
10% of 2, 250, 853 from Nairobi is 225,085 votes
5% of 2, 910, 465 from Central is 145,523 votes.
10% of 1, 713, 151 from Coast is 171,315 votes
20% of 1, 927, 043 from Western is 385,408 votes
54% of 2, 818, 516 from Eastern is 1,521,998 votes
12% of 501, 894 from North-Eastern is 60,227 votes
Assuming the statistical and political impossibility of 100% voter turnout,
Kalonzo Musyoka and Musalia Mudavadi will garner 3, 221, 549 votes.
This is equal to a generous 16.4% of the total vote.
How about the Wheelbarrow Hustlers?
In Rift Valley, Ruto will garner 66% of the vote. He will get 39% of the North Eastern vote. He will also get at least 37% of Coast Province‘s votes and 17% of the Nyanza vote. He is likely to get 70% of the Central Kenya vote as well as 40% of the Eastern Kenya vote because of Meru and Embu counties’ votes. The Hustler will most likely garner around 33% of the Nairobi vote and 18% of the Western vote.
This is how the numbers look like:
17% of 2,688, 104 from Nyanza is 456,977 votes
66% of 4, 649, 768 from Rift Valley is 3,068,846 votes
33% of 2, 250, 853 from Nairobi is 742,781 votes
70% of 2, 910, 465 from Central is 2,037,325 votes.
37% of 1, 713, 151 from Coast is 633,865 votes
17% of 1, 927, 043 from Western is 327,597 votes
40% of 2, 818, 516 from Eastern is 1,127,406 votes
39% of 501, 894 from North-Eastern is 195,738 votes
Total: 8, 590, 535
With 0% from the Diaspora and 0% from the Prisons, Ruto will manage 8,590, 535 votes, equal to 43.8% of the vote.
Based on the above realistic apportionment of the vote, the numbers will be:
- William Ruto: 8, 590, 535 , 43.8%
- Raila Odinga: 6,628, 535, 33.8%
- Kalonzo Musyoka: 3, 221, 549, 16.4%
Obviously, these numbers lead to an automatic runoff between William Ruto and Raila Odinga wherein Kalonzo Musyoka will play “Kingmaker.”
If Musyoka endorses Ruto during the runoff, it is very likely that Kambas will warm up to the Ruto camp easily and give Ruto a solid victory of more than 54%. Endorsing Raila in the runoff will anger Kambas who already suffer from acute Raila fatigue and a good portion of them will jump onto the wheelbarrow and cruise to victory with Ruto, mainly because his numbers are already closer to 50%+1 than those of Raila, meaning that he will need a smaller portion of the Kamba vote to win by a simple majority.
It is important to note that in the One Kenya Alliance, having either Musalia or Gideon Moi as the presidential candidate will lower their vote value in favour of Ruto. Musyoka’s people will vote furiously and dedicatedly for OKA if he is the one on top of the ticket whereas Luhyas will still lean strongly towards Raila as shown above even if Musalia is on top of the OKA ticket.
What if One Kenya Alliance chooses to work with Raila?
In this case, once again the Kamba nation will be disenchanted, and a good portion of them will throng to Ruto, the argument being that Kalonzo has accepted to play second fiddle for far too long. However, a majority of them will still follow Musyoka to Raila Odinga’s camp.
The end result is that neither Ruto nor Raila will achieve the constitutional threshold of 50%+1 votes to merit being declared President-Elect. Once again, there will be a runoff where Raila will win with a simple majority.
In this respect, it is supremely important that Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta work very hard to have Kalonzo Musyoka endorse Raila in the first round and even serve as his running-mate. Anything less than that gives the presidency to William Ruto.
Key Observations:
The president, by circumstances as opposed to personal choice, will find himself with total inability to sway Central Kenya voters in any direction. Former President Mwai Kibaki chose to not interfere with the electoral process but President Uhuru seems determined to endorse someone, something that will not add any vote value to whoever he endorses.
Other than Kalonzo Musyoka, no other second-tier candidate will have any significant impact. Egotists, megalomaniacs, opportunists, and spoilers should get something else to do.
Since 2017, IEBC has continued to register new voters. Without a doubt, the new numbers will affect the final percentage of each or some of the candidates, and a different outcome cannot be ruled out. For instance, IEBC at some point noted that Rift Valley counties have the highest number of qualified but unregistered people. If these people are registered, they will raise the share of the region’s vote as a part of the national vote, thus strengthening the position of whoever benefits from such new votes. Other regions that have huge numbers of people who are old enough yet unregistered to vote include the six counties of Coast Province, Western Kenya, and the Kisii part of Nyanza Province.
Onchari Oyieyo
oncharioyieyo87@gmail.com
for The Centre for African Progress (CAP).
All Rights Reserved. No adaptation is allowed without permission.