The moves of the lion are always breaking news in the jungle. Nairobi County is the centre of everything Kenyan, and anything happening therein is big news. This is especially true for issues to do with political leadership and economic activity. Since the advent of devolution, no county has registered a performance that is as lacklustre as the country’s foremost county and capital. The first five years were characterized by runway corruption that saw the first governor amass a tremendous fortune consisting of huge amounts of cash, prime properties obtained mainly through grabbing, and an enviable collection of expensive autos. The loot earned the first city governor a life of numerous trips to the courts, for a time. The second governor who zoomed into office on the auspices of popular activism embarked on a genuine journey of reinvigoration and reclamation of the capital only to be ejected out of office over a cocktail of deeds and misdeeds, including but not limited to gross personal irresponsibility, rightfully impeding the efforts of those who sought and still seek to loot from the county, and post-election citizen passivity that often lets some political leaders get harassed by high placed civil servants.
The subsequent installation of the Nairobi Metropolitan Services (NMS) as the de facto county administer together with a clueless unelected governor have jointly crippled the county, derailed service delivery, redefined confusion in leadership, enhanced corruption, and disillusioned Nairobians. Many of those interviewed for this article aired their vexation with the manner in which the county is run and cannot wait to vote in new leadership. “We are tired. We want to vote in new leaders and start afresh,” said Michael Kamau, a small business owner in Roysambu. Seven in every ten Nairobians blame President Uhuru Kenyatta for meddling with the county’s administration. President Uhuru Kenyatta is on record admitting to have pressured Nairobi County Assembly representatives to impeach Governor Mike Sonko.
This cloud of confusion, anger, frustration, and anxiety explains why this year’s election is all the more important. It is a make or break election for the county that will see it either spring into a much needed new paradigm of visionary leadership with practical solutions or a continuation of this tedium of mediocrity.
The Candidates
This year’s election is made up of quite an unattractive cast of candidates. For Nairobians who are craving sober and transformative leadership, it is a pick of the one eyed monster from among the blind.
Agnes Kagure
Agnes Kagure is a Nairobi businesswoman who has accumulated quite a fortune from her insurance and real estate ventures. Although she has not involved herself in politics directly, she has been in the background in Nairobi City politics since 2016. She was among the few people who believed that Sonko would win as governor and funded his dream from the get-go. She was also a top candidate for deputy governor after Polycarp Igathe’s resignation but Governor Sonko never actualized it.
Kagure is a titan when it comes to boardroom political dealings and she is arguably the candidate to beat in this contest.
Kagure is positioning herself as an Azimio or handshake candidate. Of all those seeking the Raila ticket in this race, she carries the least baggage and brings maximum value to the Raila wing. First, as a woman, Raila can make the argument that it is time for Nairobi to try a woman having been let down by two men. It is a practical way for Raila and his handshake brother, President Uhuru to convince women that they do value their input and that they are willing to see women assume senior leadership positions. Second, Kagure has no known scandal that can derail her bid. One of her competitors, Kenya National Chamber of Commerce and Industry president, Mr. Richard Ngatia, is the true definition of scandal having been mentioned adversely in numerous healthcare-related scams.
Denis Waweru
Denis Waweru, a former Member of Parliament for Dagoretti South Constituency, had the best chance of capturing the Nairobi governorship, but for some reason let it slip away. He co-chaired the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) committee with Raila’s mouthpiece and ODM Parrot, Hon. Junet Mohammed and got a chance to help push forward Raila Odinga’s interests, meaning that he raised his bargaining power for the handshake ticket.
But he is chronically reliant on the phantomic system for direction, not knowing that even the system has ears on the ground that help in picking the most active candidate and not the one who is doing nothing and banking on some miracle. Agnes Kagure, Richard Ngatia, Timothy Wanyonyi and Johnson Sakaja have have come from behind and made their bids felt way better than Waweru’s, and the difference is that these other candidates are self-driven go-getters. Waweru seems to have lost steam and there are indications that he will contest for the Dagoretti South parliamentary seat against incumbent John Kiarie.
Margaret Wanjiru
Bishop Margaret Wanjiru is one of the most formidable city politicians. She is likeable in her own right and possesses wonderful mobilization skills. Her name recognition is high having contested for the Senate in 2013 where she garnered more than 500,000 votes against the eventual victor, Mike Sonko, who got close to one million votes. She has been instrumental in popularizing the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) in Nairobi, and was an early supporter of the Deputy President. She is extremely courageous and combative, attributes that come in handy in the rough and tumble of Nairobi politics. So far she is the one who possesses the electoral infrastructure to win the UDA nomination.
Richard Ngatia
Richard Ngatia is the Chief Executive officer of Megascope, a company that is at the centre of numerous multi-billion healthcare scandals. He is also the president of the Kenya Chamber of Commerce and Industry. Ngatia has entered the race with tremendous energy but both the President and the ODM leader are wary of associating with him given the scandalous reputation he has. It is especially tricky for the ODM leader to embrace him given the fact that Raila has positioned himself as the anti-corruption candidate in this year’s election, and has repeatedly attacked Deputy President William Ruto as an extremely corrupt leader who will preside over the economic dismemberment of the country.
If Ngatia gets the handshake ticket, Raila and Uhuru will have lost the ground for making the anti-corruption case.
Hon. Tim Wanyonyi
Hon. Wanyonyi is the current Member of Parliament for Westlands Constituency, a seat he has held for the last 10 years. He has positioned himself as ODM’s Nairobi gubernatorial candidate, a position that betrays both political tunnel vision and blind self-interest. First, it is rather obvious that he does not bring any new vote to Raila since the ODM leader has a respectable command of Luhya voters as per previous voting patterns. There is every indication that these patterns will change with a strong Musalia Musalia and Moses Wetangula bolting out of the Raila political camp, but the change will not completely decimate Raila’s support among the Luhya, and given that Raila intends to use the Nairobi County top seat to bargain for more GEMA votes, a Luhya candidate is the worst bet. Secondly, numbers show that Kikuyus control both the vote and the economy of the city yet they have not held the governorship since the advent of devolution, and in both the two terms that non-Kikuyus have held the governorship, leadership has been economically disastrous, thus negatively affecting their businesses. Therefore, they might not be excited about the idea of having a non-Kikuyu governor for a third time, especially when they are fully aware that they do not have the presidency (It is now clear that the fifth president of Kenya will be Musalia Mudavadi, Kalonzo Musyoka, William Ruto or Raila Odinga).
Johnson Sakaja
This is the current Senator for Nairobi County. He has been quite shifty in his interest for Nairobi County governor as far as his preferred party is concerned. He started with Jubilee, then shifted to Musalia Mudavadi’s ANC, and is now trying to elbow Margaret Wanjiru out of the Kenya Kwanza slot.
Senator Sakaja lacks a constituency in Nairobi, thus rendering him one of the weakest gubernatorial aspirants.
Fwamba N.C Fwamba
Fwamba N.C Fwamba is a former advisor in the ministry of defense. He is not new in Nairobi’s murky political waters having deputized the late Kavemba Mutinda as he sought the county’s top seat in 2013. He has managed to create an extensive network especially among the youth, and it will be interesting to see how he utilizes this vital political advantage. He is emerging as a critical voice among Western Kenya leaders, and his command of respect among Nairobi’s Luhyas will complicate any negotiations that take place without him.
Social Media Footprint of the Candidates
In the post-Covid era, political campaigns have assumed a largely digital dimension to a point where a candidate without a social media presence starts at a disadvantage. In the Kenyan political landscape, the major social media platforms used include Twitter and Facebook. Below is the raw detailing of the numbers of followers for each candidate followed by a classification pegged on activity.
| Candidate | Facebook Followers | Twitter Followers |
| Johnson Sakaja | 490, 139 | 872,400 |
| Denis Waweru | 112, 036 | – |
| Margaret Wanjiru | 88, 026 | 20,200 |
| Hon. Tim Wanyonyi | 88,000 | 27,200 |
| Agnes Kagure | 76,033 | 12,900 |
| Fwamba N.C Fwamba | 33,353 | 8,755 |
| Richard Ngatia | 2,500 | 8,587 |
Classification based on Social Media Activity
Whereas having numerous followers is commendable, the most significant element is acidity. In other words, having followers who frequently interact with the account owner through likes, comments, and shares is more meaningful than having millions of dormant followers. The following is a listing of the candidates based on social media activity:
| Candidate | Activity |
| Agnes Kagure | 36% |
| Margaret Wanjiru | 25% |
| Hon. Tim Wanyonyi | 14% |
| Johnson Sakaja | 11% |
| Denis Waweru | 8% |
| Fwamba N.C Fwamba | 3% |
| Richard Ngatia | 2% |
Opinion Polls: The Centre for African Progress (CAP) Average
Opinion polls have become a central element of political propaganda in Kenya, and several opinion poll companies have conducted polls for the Nairobi County gubernatorial race. The much respected CAP average considers the available polls and calculates the average which often gives a reliable picture of the popularity of the candidates.
| Candidate | CAP | TIFA | ATRIP | CAP Average |
| Agnes Kagure | 34% | 11% | 31% | 25.3% |
| Margaret Wanjiru | 32% | 30% | 10% | 24% |
| Johnson Sakaja | 6% | 30% | 4% | 13.3% |
| Tim Wanyonyi | 13% | 5% | 9% | 9% |
| Richard Ngatia | 6% | 1% | 4% | 3.7% |
| Denis Waweru | 32% | 1% | 14% | 15.7% |
| Fwamba N.C Fwamba | 6% | 1% | 7% | 4.7% |
The CAP poll of polls is an average of all the polls, and usually gives the most reliable estimate of the popularity of the candidates. The polls featured in this average include those from CAP, TIFA, and ATRIP.
At this time, Agnes Kagure scores the highest in CAP average at 25.3% followed by Bishop Margaret Wanjiru at 24%. The rest of the candidates are below 15%, implying that they are not strong enough to be fielded by their respective parties to compete for the gubernatorial seat.
The Subtleties in the Contest
- The Azimio Adavantage
From the onset, Azimio, a moribund political outfit headed by the former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, has an upper hand in the Nairobi County gubernatorial contest. However, this is hinged on who will fly the coalition’s flag in the elections against the UDA candidate. The Raila coalition of Luos, Luhyas, a good portion of Kisiis, and Kambas will provide a solid vote base. If the torchbearer is a Kikuyu, additional votes from GEMA block will catapult the candidate to victory.
It is fair to assume that the UDA candidate will bank mainly on the Kikuyu vote that will not come in its entirety. A kikuyu Azimio candidate for governor will easily get some of the Kikuyu votes thus weakening the UDA candidate considerably, especially if that candidate is non-Kikuyu.
A non-Kikuyu Azimio candidate facing off with a UDA Kikuyu candidate will hand the election to UDA.
- The UDA dilemma point
As far as Nairobi is concerned, UDA is seated on the horns of a dilemma, and whichever position the party turns, it is gored to pulp. A non-Kikuyu candidate for governor will attract a subtle rebellion from Kikuyus who will rightfully argue that they cannot forgo the presidency and support Ruto only for him to bring in another non-Kikuyu to Nairobi’s top seat. It will also be tough for Ruto, a non-Kikuyu, to ask for his own votes and go ahead and ask for votes for another non-Kikuyu as Nairobi governor. Therefore, a non-Kikuyu becomes a weak candidate against Azimio.
- Nairobi is a controversial county with two failed gubernatorial terms with the second governor getting kicked out of office. Corruption is a major issue, and there is no doubt that it will feature prominently in this election cycle. The party which settles on a candidate with less or no corruption scandal will have an advantage.
Research and Analysis done by the Centre for African Progress (CAP).
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