The Issues that will Count
It is now clear that Nairobians will be ushering in 2021 with a gubernatorial by-election in mind. Governor Sonko, a man who created a special constituency that can be described as “cross-tribal,” was hanged to dry, not by the state operatives who took the step to push him out but by the envious and indescribably insecure hangers-on who fed him with unfounded fear, senseless advice, unnecessary backbiting of colleagues, and round the clock blinding hero-worship, maladies that crystallized in epic missteps.
And with the missteps, a stellar political journey whose final destination might have been State House was brought to a screeching halt. So now Nairobians are staring into another electoral mayhem that will leave the City County languishing in confusion for a month and a half. A number of factors will affect the potential outcome and the odds stacked against each of the potential candidates will ultimately help predict the eventual winner. Here is a look at some of the factors and odds that all contenders will have to deal with in their bid to run the city.
The Deep State and the Handshake
Sonko’s unceremonious exit was a ‘not-so-carefully calculated plan’ by the operatives of the Deep State who felt that the governor was nothing more than an obstructer. Having snatched away the lucrative functions through the dubious Deed of Transfer that was quickly and abruptly signed at State House Nairobi, they had to come for the money too, and the governor would have none of it. He had to be sent packing. Senators received both sticks and carrots and towed the Deep State line with only the gallant TangaTanga adherents flipping the bird to the state. But their votes were not enough to save Sonko. In a really shameful case of outright and unexplainable betrayal, Makueni Senator, Mutula Kilonzo Jr. chose to abstain. Arguing that his vote would not have made a difference is a no-brainer. Leaders MUST take sides when vital matters of destiny are up for debate.
The Deep State will have immense interest in who wins the seat inasmuch as they did not want a by-election. The by-election, some sources have revealed, has been insisted upon by Raila and ODM to carve an opportunity to continue showcasing his goodwill towards Kikuyus by letting the community field its own candidate. The end game is to try and dent Ruto’s solid support in Mt. Kenya. So far, even President Uhuru himself has been unable to move his community from Ruto’s pocket, with most of them arguing that whether he is good or bad, Ruto kept his promise and stood by Uhuru twice; 2013 and 2017, insisting that returning the favour is part of the community’s spiritual creed. In the backyard of the Senate Majority Whip, Hon. Irungu Kangata, a Ruto supporter by the name Esther Mwihaki floored a Deep State candidate going by the name Faith Wakuthie, an outcome that demonstrates the extent to which Central Kenya is determined to stick with the Deputy President.
While the Deep State will definitely be concerned with the election, they will have to contend with the reality that President Uhuru Kenyatta has lost interest in the petty politicking that is going on, and like Kibaki, he might not care who becomes the next President. With humiliating losses in several parliamentary and civic seats over the last few days, Kenyans will be keenly observing whether they will assume the blatant vote-stealing strategy that is common in banana republics or embrace democracy even if that means suffering another pride-shattering and hope-smashing defeat as it was the case in Msambweni where the ODM candidate lost even with state machinery.
The Sonko Factor
Hate him or not, Sonko still holds sway in considerably large sections of the county, especially in the low income areas where most of the voters reside. To his advantage, these people believe strongly that the governor was targeted by the state because he was not willing to play ball, which basically means he was not ready to let them steal money meant for development. These are the same people who were not willing to let other 2017 gubernatorial hopefuls set foot in their neighbourhoods. They always roughed up Peter Kenneth, Denis Waweru, and Eugene Wamalwa, and capped it all by voting in Sonko, showing the incumbent governor, Evans Kidero, the door. Continued harassment of Sonko has increased the martyr spirit of his followers. Members of President Uhuru’s Ddeep State have never learned that in most instances, perceived political persecution of most politicians increases their support base. This is part of the reason why Ruto has grown into a force that is arguably the strongest in the country at the moment.
During this by-election, Sonko will descend on his perceived political detractors with a vengeance, and lucky is the one who will get his endorsement-for this will come with a large reliable network of diehards who are found in every corner of the county.
The Potency of the Hustler Movement
French Poet, Victor Hugo, once stated that, “no force on earth can stop an idea whose time has come.” I’d be deluded if I don’t acquiesce to the reality that the “Hustler versus Dynasty” narrative has struck a chord with Kenyans. I want to take credit as the first Kenyan to use the antithetical phrase, “Hustlers versus Dynasties,” when I was trying to demonstrate the then feeble effort by some politicians who had gained some economic strength mainly through dubious means, to take on the big political and economic families that have accumulated immense power over several decades, stretching down to pre-independence Kenya. What I viewed as “feeble” has quickly grown into a fearsome armada that unsettles even the father of all political scams and schemes, Raila Odinga. With Ruto at the helm, Hustlers swarmed Msambweni like summertime butterflies and delivered the parliamentary seat with ease, leaving the state with egg on its face, as ODM/State operatives were captured with pre-filled ballot boxes that they were trying to sneak into tallying centres. Ruto seems to have carefully learned and perfected Raila’s ground game, with a few added advantages such as relative youthfulness, round the clock sobriety, and strategic generosity which contrasts with Raila’s record-breaking stinginess.
State sympathizers whose cup is filled with denial have for a while now attributed the crowds Ruto pulls to money, arguing that he buys attendants. But numbers do not lie. He has bagged four out of the last five national assembly by-elections, and in each of them, Raila’s men have loudly presented these contests as a battle between the Rs- a brawl between Ruto and Raila. A case in point is when Senator Orengo urged Ugenya voters to reject Hon. David Ochieng, arguing that a vote for him is a vote for Ruto only for the Ugenya people to actually vote for Ochieng who is now serving as the MP for Ugenya.
The candidate who gets the blessings of the Hustler Nation will benefit from the motivation and inspiration emanating from the recent triumphs of the Hustlers.
The Centre for African Progress (CAP) is currently carrying out research to help unravel the extent to which the Hustler narrative has gained traction in the country.
Baggage: Guilt resulting from Association
Kenyans are hurting as a result of Covid-19. Masks donated by Chinese philanthropist Jack Ma were stolen and sold. The government is pushing BBI even as Kenyans continue to suffer and die due to an already broken economy, the ravaging pandemic and runaway corruption that has reduced the country into real gangsterland. In this scenario, it does not help matters to bear the state tag. The candidate who will be fronted by the ODM/Jubilee (Kieleweke) team will have a difficult time explaining away the government’s sins of omission and commission whereas the Hustler candidate will simply state that the leader, Ruto, was in government until 2017 and was jettisoned out by Uhuru in favour of Raila, and most of the unforgivable economic sins have occurred under the “Handshake.”
Candidates have already identified with some of these groupings, and a Centre for African Progress (CAP) survey is underway to find out who is the most popular so far.
Dominic Oketch,
Centre for African Progress (CAP)
oketchoketch3@gmail.com