As we inch closer to 2027, the political temperature is rising across the country, and Mvita Constituency in Mombasa County is no exception. The current member of parliament for the constituency is Hon. Machele Mohamed who won the seat in 2022 through the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). He faces a tough re-election battle with numerous rivals positioning themselves to kick him out of office, citing poor leadership as the main reason. According to them, he is keen on giving handouts to young people instead of coming up with long-lasting solutions. The young people use the handouts for drugs, which is a major problem in Mombasa. Citizen Television’s popular news anchor Lulu Hassan is among the many individuals who have come out to challenge Hon. Machele.
In an opinion poll conducted between the 22nd and 26th of June 2026 by the Centre for African Progress (CAP), Lulu Hassan leads in the constituency with 34.4%. The incumbent is second with 29.9% while Omar Shalo comes in at number 3 with 15.5%. The poll utilized a sample of 2,600 against the constituency’s 118,974 registered voters. The margin of error is +/-1.4 with confidence levels of 97%.
The sample had a 52% female representation and a 48% male portion, and the major issue pointed out by most respondents, at 44% which is equal to 1,144 out of the 2600 members of the sample is the economy. Youth unemployment came in second at 32% while poor roads within the constituency scored 24%.
Lulu Hassan performs very well in Majengo Ward, Shimanzi Ward and Tononoka Ward with Machele registering good numbers in Mji wa Kale Ward.
The election is a year way, August 2027, and Lulu is yet to identify a political party. She has also not launched her campaign officially, meaning that there is still room for new developments in the race.
The death of ODM leader, Raila Amolo Odinga, leaves the once popular party in a difficult state, and there are questions as to whether it will serve as the popular vehicle it once was. Mr. Odinga was a loved figure and his endorsement alone almost assured one of victory at the polls. 2027 will not have that kind of privilege for ODM candidates. That many of them will lose elections is not in doubt. Nairobi County is another region where ODM is likely to face a grim reality given the absence of Raila’s overbearing hand that helped shut out candidates who he considered spoilers in most constituencies. Such candidates will not have anyone to keep them in line. It will be a miracle if ODM manages even three seats in Nairobi.
Mombasa will face a similar challenge, and this is why Lulu Hassan’s lead over Machele should scare the incumbent.
Another sentiment that works in Lulu’s favour is that she is seen by many as of “local extraction,” meaning that the Mijikenda who have always felt marginalized by the so called “settlers” will rally strongly in favour “one of their own.” This is a rarely spoken yet strongly felt sentiment in Mvita constituency and indeed larger parts of the Coast.